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In the U.S. and Europe, basketball is played by different rules, so betting strategies for the NBA and EuroLeague vary. In this article, we’ll explore seven basketball betting strategies, including one foolproof method.
NBA Over Total Strategy (Odds Range: 1.75–1.95)
Bet on the total going over if the following criteria are met:
Both teams rank in the bottom half in defensive rating.
The highest-scoring players on both teams are playing.
Both teams rank in the top 15 for pace.
Both teams have had at least one day of rest.
Example:
In a game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Minnesota Timberwolves, bookmakers offer 1.92 for over 240 total points. Bet on the over if all criteria are met.
EuroLeague Under Total Strategy (Odds Range: 1.75–1.95)
Bet on the total going under if:
There are fewer than four wins separating the teams in the standings.
Both teams are among the 10 least efficient offenses.
Bookmakers offer odds below 2.60 for either team to win.
Example:
In a Fenerbahçe vs. Crvena Zvezda match, bookmakers offer 1.85 for under 152 points. Bet the under if all criteria are fulfilled.
Martingale Approach (Doubling Up on Losses)
Bet on the over for a team's top scorer if they've failed to meet the bookmaker’s projected stat line for three consecutive games.
The line is close to the player's average performance for the season.
Odds range between 1.70 and 2.10.
If the bet loses, use the Martingale system by increasing your stake in subsequent games until the bet wins.
With Oscar’s Grind, you keep your stake the same after a loss and double it after a win, aiming for steady profit.
Your first stake equals your target profit.
Use for NBA and EuroLeague games with odds of 2.00 or higher.
Here are two live betting strategies using progressive staking.
Quarter Comparison Betting
Bet on the over in the second quarter of an NBA game (odds range: 1.75–1.95) if:
The teams scored at least 10 points fewer than expected in Q1.
Both teams shot under 40% from the field.
If the bet loses, use Martingale to bet the over in subsequent quarters.
Example:
In a game between the Dallas Mavericks and Washington Wizards, Q1 ends 26–20 with 38% and 33% field goal shooting. Bet on over 60 points in Q2.
Underdog Quarter Winner Strategy
Bet on the underdog to win the first quarter (odds above 2.30).
If it loses, bet on the underdog in each following quarter, increasing the stake using the Martingale system. If needed, continue this pattern into the next game.
Arbitrage betting ("Surebets") in basketball means betting on all opposing outcomes with different bookmakers for guaranteed profit.
One bet will lose, but the other will win at a profit.
Use the formula to identify an arbitrage opportunity:
Sp = 1 / K₁ + 1 / K₂ + … + 1 / Kₙ,
Where Sp is the sum of probabilities, and K₁, K₂, …, Kₙ are the odds.
If Sp < 1, you have an arbitrage bet.
Example:
In a Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers game:
Bookmaker A offers 2.05 for Boston.
Bookmaker B offers 2.03 for the Lakers.
Calculate the sum:
1 / 2.05 + 1 / 2.03 = 0.9804 → This is a surebet.
Equal stakes on both outcomes result in profit regardless of who wins.
To bet successfully on basketball, you must understand the sport's rules and the differences between the NBA and EuroLeague. Using both live and pre-match strategies can significantly increase your chances of profit.
